Who’s taking the Cup home?

10 July, 2018

We know the World Cup 2018 knockout stage matches have had fans across the world on the edge of their seats. So, to release some tension we thought we’d throw in a bit of logic to help you work out who might be taking the Cup home.

At GiG we’re passionate about understanding what insights hide behind each game’s stats and results. We do this by using models and methodologies that provide us with the right data to reveal the connection between the result and the actual match progress. This way we can better predict future outcomes of such closely matched games.


How do we do this?

We have a ranking system at the heart of what we do showing the strength of each team, the individual players, manager’s tactics and so on. When we look at what can impact a match we put numbers on everything. We’ve got season variables, home advantages, injuries and suspensions, weather and wind, next and previous matches, motivation and travel distance. Finally we arrive at a logical conclusion, pointing towards an expected result, constituting our estimate of what will happen in the match.

What are probabilities predicting?

As France meet Belgium in tonight’s game, there’s currently a 52.6% chance that France will be victorious at the Saint Petersburg Stadium. Between Croatia and England in the second semi-final, England is the team most likely go through to the final with a 57.5% chance of defeating Croatia.

Ahead of tonight’s clash, our oddsmakers tell us that France have a 32.36% chance of taking home the coveted FIFA World Cup Trophy, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be easy, and this tournament has shown us that anything is possible!

To qualify for the final:

  • France – Belgium 52.6% – 47.4%
  • Croatia – England 42.5% – 57.5%

Most likely teams to face each other in the final:

  • France – England 30.2%
  • Belgium – England 27.4%
  • Croatia – France 22.4%
  • Belgium – Croatia 20%

World Cup winner 2018:

Based on what we know so far, England will likely be the underdog in a potential French-English final, while they will be the favourite by just 1% against Belgium. But, as has been seen before in this tournament and along the way, it has been hard to conclusively forecast the big favourites to hold the Cup aloft in Moscow this coming Sunday. So for the neutral football supporter this is going to be both exciting and entertaining.

Win World Cup:

  • France 31.1%
  • England 26.5%
  • Belgium 25.4%
  • Croatia 17%

Amidst the sweaty palms and clenched teeth of the remaining fans, one thing may be less of a nail-biter for the English amongst them – there’s a solid 82% chance that Harry Kane will end up as the top scorer of the competition, taking home the Golden Boot from 2018’s unprecedented World Cup finals. One thing’s for sure, we know 100% of all supporters will be praying for their team to win.


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