By Laurent Bedout – Head of Trading
During a World Cup, do you find yourself watching matches more as a trader or as a fan, and how do you balance the two?
First and foremost, I am a sports fanatic at heart, especially when it comes to football. I’ve poured everything into building a career in this industry, starting out as a sports journalist before transitioning into the world of sports betting. For me, the Football World Cup is an extraordinary event, and I can’t wait for it to kick off!
I’ll definitely be supporting the French national team with all my heart. That said, as Head of Trading, the ‘numbers guy’ in me never really switches off. It often pushes me to watch a match through the lens of what’s best for GiG in terms of performance and revenue. It definitely creates a fascinating tug-of-war between the fan’s heart and the trader’s logic.
What are the moments in a World Cup that present the greatest risk or uncertainty from a trading perspective?
Generally speaking, it’s the group stages. It is challenging to accurately gauge the performance levels between teams from different continents who have little to no recent head-to-head history. You also have the ‘black box’ of physical preparation: teams spend several days in isolation training like never before, which can completely level the playing field and lead to some upsets.
What makes this specific World Cup even more volatile is the expanded 48-team format. With an additional knockout round, the road to the final is now a marathon, not a sprint. This forces coaches into complex tactical calculations regarding squad rotation—they have to manage player fatigue with extreme precision to avoid late-stage burnout. Furthermore, with the best third-placed teams now advancing, the mathematical ‘safety net’ changes the way managers approach risk. For a trader, the challenge isn’t just about who is the better team on paper; it’s about anticipating these shifts in motivation and squad management. It’s a high-stakes puzzle that keeps us on our toes from the very first whistle.
From a personal and professional standpoint, which team would you like to see succeed, and which outcome would present the greatest challenge from a trading perspective?
On a personal level, my heart obviously beats for France. But as a loyal Paris Saint-Germain supporter, I’ll also be closely following Portugal. With so many PSG stars like Vitinha, João Neves, and Nuno Mendes in their squad, they are naturally my second favorite to go all the way.
From a trading standpoint, the World Cup is unique because bettors are incredibly patriotic—they tend to bet with their hearts, backing their national teams and star players. At GiG, our greatest asset is our diversified global footprint. Operating in multiple key markets like France, Spain, and Argentina (among others) allows us to mitigate risk; it’s rarely a ‘win-or-lose-it-all’ situation for our revenue. The 2022 Final between France and Argentina was a perfect example—a dream scenario where we had massive engagement on both sides, ensuring a balanced outcome regardless of the trophy winner.
However, the 2026 edition brings a very specific technical challenge: the new match format featuring a three-minute break during each half. This is a real curveball for odds modeling. Having an extra six minutes of guaranteed additional time per match significantly alters the flow and data points we use to calculate live prices. It’s another fascinating puzzle that requires us to be more precise than ever.
Do you ever find your personal loyalties influencing your trading mindset, particularly when your national team is involved?
Honestly, I don’t believe so, and there are two main reasons for that. First, experience is the ultimate filter – the 2026 tournament will be my fifth World Cup as part of a trading team. In high-stakes events like this, having that kind of track record is crucial. It teaches you how to keep a cool head when the pressure is high.
Secondly, because I’m such a huge football fan, I’m consistently ‘consuming’ the game. I read books, I follow TV and radio debates, and I make it a point to engage with diverse perspectives. This constant flow of information gives me a birds-eye view that allows me to step back from my ‘fan’ side. It’s that intellectual rigor that helps me maintain the objectivity needed to make the right calls for GiG, regardless of my personal loyalties.
Looking back, what has been the most unexpected or disruptive moment you’ve experienced in a major international tournament?
As a Frenchman, the most surreal and disruptive moment is, without a doubt, the ‘Knysna’ incident in 2010. Seeing the entire national team go on strike and refuse to train during a World Cup was beyond anything we could have imagined. It didn’t just disrupt a tournament; it shook the very foundations of French football like never before.
Even now, as we approach the 2026 edition, that episode still looms in the back of our minds. It serves as a stark reminder of how quickly things can go wrong when the human element takes an unexpected turn. But in a way, it also provides a much-needed sense of perspective. No matter how much pressure we face or how poorly the team might perform on the pitch, we’ve already survived the ultimate crisis. It has taught me that in trading, as in football, you have to be prepared for the truly unthinkable.
Are there individual players who, due to their impact or unpredictability, can significantly shift markets during a tournament?
Personally, I believe individual players don’t move the needle quite as much as they used to. In modern football, the “team” has truly taken precedence over the individual. The impact that players like Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo have had at their prime ten years ago is almost incomparable to the impact of today’s elite talent.
Nowadays, regardless of their status, top-tier players need an even stronger, more cohesive team around them to truly perform and secure major titles. We saw a perfect example of this with PSG last season: the club achieved its most successful season in its history immediately after the departure of its biggest ‘star.’ It proved that a well-balanced unit is often more resilient and effective than a team built around a single focal point. From a trading perspective, this means we now place much more weight on tactical structures and team dynamics rather than just the presence of a few ‘big names’ on the pitch.
In your experience, which scenario is more demanding, pricing a World Cup final or managing in-play markets during a high-intensity knockout match?
I would say managing in-play markets during a high-stakes knockout match is definitely the more demanding task. The variables are endless, and momentum can shift in a heartbeat – it requires total focus and instant reactivity.
By contrast, pricing a World Cup final is actually much more straightforward. By that point, we’ve watched both teams evolve within the exact same context for several weeks. We have a comprehensive ‘data set’ on their form and tactics. In fact, it’s become a bit of a tradition in our team to play a game of ‘guess the odds’ before the matchups are even officially set. It’s a great way to pit our market intuition and deep-rooted sports expertise against the models, and thanks to our experience, we’re usually close to final odds.
Finally, setting models and data aside, who do you see winning the World Cup?
The million-dollar question! I love it. First of all, what’s striking about this edition is that there’s a clear cluster of six or seven teams that could realistically lift the trophy without being a major shock. It’s a very open field.
Personally, I tend to favor teams that demonstrate strong continuity and a clear tactical identity. Spain, for instance, is a prime example after their brilliant Euro 2024 campaign. They’re playing a football that’s hard to break. On the other hand, while France has an unparalleled talent pool -our depth is truly second to none- I feel we’ve lacked that same consistency in our system and tactical intent over the last few years. Will Didier Deschamps stick with the 4-2-3-1 system that has shown so much promise recently, especially when we’ll face the heavyweights in the knockout rounds? Or will he revert to a more ‘robust’ -and usual for him- three-man midfield in those high-stakes situations?
As for the two South American giants, Brazil and Argentina might not be boasting the ‘golden generations’ of the past right now, but they still have tournament DNA to go deep. England, as the previous Euro finalists, are obviously strong contenders too. However, as said above, if I had to pick one team from this elite group that could truly outperform their current odds, it would be Portugal. They have the perfect blend of experience and emerging talent to be the real story of this World Cup.
